In December 2025, Ecuador’s National Assembly approved the government’s 2026 budget proposal, with 78 votes in favour, 66 against, and four abstentions. The budget focuses on social programmes, security, and infrastructure development, with total budget spending set at $46.3bn, equivalent to 33.27% of GDP, which represents a 13% increase compared to the 2025 budget spending. It is based on projected real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2026, with nominal GDP estimated at $139.1bn. The macroeconomic framework estimates oil production of 165.5m barrels in 2026, with an average oil price of $53.5 per barrel, significantly below levels seen in previous years. Based on these assumptions, total revenue is estimated at $46.3bn, comprising $21.7bn in current revenues, $8.5bn in capital revenues, and $16.1bn in financing.
On the expenditure side, $23.5bn is allocated to current spending, including wages and public services, while $1.8bn is earmarked for public investment and $10.5bn for capital expenditures. The budget projects an overall deficit of $5.4bn, reflecting a $1.8bn gap between permanent revenues and expenditures and a $3.6bn deficit in non-permanent accounts. To meet fiscal obligations and refinance debt, the budget includes a financing requirement of $10.5bn, most of which—$8.4bn—is earmarked for debt amortisation.
Access deeper industry intelligence
Experience unmatched clarity with a single platform that combines unique data, AI, and human expertise.
Despite limited fiscal space, the budget continues to prioritise social support and funding for local governments. Spending on transfers and subsidies will total $6.3bn, including $1.8bn for social assistance programs such as the Human Development Bond and transport subsidies, and $3.9bn to support social security systems for civilians, police, and the armed forces.
Public investment under the Annual Investment Plan will amount to $2.2bn across 388 projects, mainly focused on energy, social development, security, and public administration. In addition, transfers to local governments will reach $4.1bn, while mandatory funding for education and health is set to increase by $695m each.
Overall, Ecuador’s 2026 budget is likely to have a mixed impact on the construction industry. While planned capital spending, public investment programs, and transfers to local governments will help sustain activity in infrastructure, public buildings, and energy-related projects, tight fiscal conditions and a sizable deficit may constrain the scale and timing of project execution. As a result, the construction industry growth in 2026 is expected to remain moderate, with opportunities mainly concentrated in government-backed projects rather than large, privately financed developments.
According to GlobalData, the construction industry is expected to register a growth of 4.1% in 2026, followed by an annual average growth rate of 4.7% between 2027 and 2030, supported by investments in residential and transport infrastructure projects. In November 2025, the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport allocated $407m for 2026 as part of the Annual Investment Plan (PAI). Under the plan, some major infrastructure projects include the “Creamos Vivienda” housing program ($58m), the construction of the Fifth Bridge (Viaducto Sur) in Guayaquil ($33m), and the Mercado Municipal de Calceta ($30.7m). Growth will also be supported by the $2.43bn electric power expansion plan for 2025-2030. The plan aims to add 1,471MW in new renewable energy capacity from hydro, solar, wind, and geothermal sources, with a notable focus on solar power, accounting for 963MW and $913m in investment. Overall, the plan includes the development of 23 projects in partnership with private companies.
US Tariffs are shifting - will you react or anticipate?
Don’t let policy changes catch you off guard. Stay proactive with real-time data and expert analysis.
By GlobalDataFurthermore, in October 2025, the Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy announced that the country is projected to experience a significant increase in electricity demand, rising from 5,063MW in 2024 to 8,904MW by 2034; a growth of approximately 76%. This surge will be driven primarily by the expansion of the mining, shrimp farming, and oil sectors. Electricity consumption is also expected to rise from 32,732GWh in 2024 to 57,646GWh by 2034. To meet this growing demand, Ecuador is advancing a portfolio of major energy projects, including the Cardenillo hydroelectric plant (595MW with investment of $1.326bn), the Santiago hydroelectric plant (2,400MW with investment of $3.63bn), the Pimo wind project (150–200MW with investment of $300m), and the Combined Cycle project ($600m).
In November 2025, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) approved a $1bn Conditional Credit Line for Investment Projects (CCLIP) to finance the upgrade of Ecuador’s national electricity supply and ensure reliable and efficient power delivery across the country. Under the programme, the government plans to connect more than 5,600 new households in the Ecuadorian Amazon region to the national grid by 2031 and upgrade over 700km of transmission lines with advanced conductors. Furthermore, it includes the modernisation and digitalisation of control centres and connection points for strategic power generation plants.
